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Posts: 2857/2860
(20-Sep-2015 at 20:05)

U.S. Political Cycle 2015-2016

This is partially because I was curious as to what some at least semi-mature foreign peoples thought of the current election cycle and partially a test to see if this forum would ever be active again.

What it looks like is that he Republicans will cycle through all the wild cards as they did before (2012) and eventually settle on an inevitable moderate like Romney.

The Democrats have something interesting as they did in 2008 where a surprising upstart (Bernie) might present a challenge to Clinton.

Anyway, best regards to those reading this even if you do not reply. I'll check back once in a while and more frequently if others start posting.

Mars II - American Scientist
PhD - Physical Chemistry

Last edited by Mars II, 20-Sep-2015 at 20:08.
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Posts: 2245/2247
Donated $4.24
(25-Sep-2015 at 00:11)

I'm Australian, but I'd like to think that I know my way around the US political system.

I'm also an avowed Hillary supporter - I was disappointed that she didn't win in 2008, however, am glad that she's running again. I actually don't think Sanders is comparable to Obama. Obama had core constituencies that resonated across the country. I think Sanders' constituency is pretty much in New England, and that's why he's polling quite well there. The media attention on his candidacy is, of course, deserved, but naturally, the NY Time and WaPo aren't going to splash headlines of: "HILLARY LEADS IN STATE X", but they will when Sanders even has a whiff of victory - that's just the nature of the media, I guess.

I believe that she'll win, fairly comfortably. If not, I'm somewhat comforted that she'll be able to eke out a win.

I will say that she needs to really become a lot more comfortable on the campaign trail. She is as stilted as ever, and it comes across as disingenuous, which means that she'll have difficulty connecting with the electorate.

On the GOP side, boy, Donald Trump. Should be interesting. I'm really impressed by Carly Fiorina, she's done well for someone that, in my opinion, was a nobody who never held elected office and lost in 2010 to Boxer quite badly. The only thing is, she's framed herself as a foil to Trump and to Clinton. Should Trump flame out (which I think he will), and should Clinton lose, then she's gone too because she hasn't established herself as anything other than an anti-Trump anti-Clinton candidate. At some stage, you have to be -for- something, and I can't really say what she's -for-.

Scott Walker dropping out really ups Hillary's chances of winning in the general. I think that the only candidates that really have a chance of beating Hillary in the general are: Walker, Rubio, Bush and maybe Graham. With Walker dropping out, and Graham being somewhere between 0-1%, it's pretty much just Bush and Rubio. They're pretty much fighting for the same donors and voters. Bush, the more experienced, will have to be more conservative in the GOP primary, which will hurt him at the general, see Romney in 2012.

Bush and Rubio are between a rock and a hard place - they're not loved by the conservative wing of the party (due to Common Core and amnesty/DREAM respectively), but their positions are where the GOP needs to be to win a general (in my view).

Everyone is entitled to be stupid, but some abuse the privilege!
Hippopotomonstrosesquippedaliophobia - The Fear of Long Words
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Posts: 2858/2860
(25-Sep-2015 at 04:46)

I should note that I am biased toward Bernie as I am a Vermonter. I agree with your points though you are well versed on our political theater. I personally oppose Clinton because I don't want to have Bush - Clinton - Bush -Obama -Clinton. Too much like a dynasty. I also oppose Bush for this reason but I probably wouldn't vote for him anyway.

Of the republicans Fiorina does seem like a suitable pick as of right now. I thought Christie would make more of an impact. It's still relatively unsettled though.

Mars II - American Scientist
PhD - Physical Chemistry
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(27-Sep-2015 at 08:24)

Re: U.S. Political Cycle 2015-2016

Well Boehner resigning, that's a shock. I'm hoping McMorris Rodgers steps up to the plate with Majority Leader, and hopefully she can beat Scalise and Roskam (who are shaping up to be her main competitors). Part of me wants Scalise to win because it'll be extremely damaging to the GOP. The other part of me wants McMorris Rodgers to be there, because she's moderate and it'd be good for the GOP to have another senior woman in a position of power.

Originally Posted by Mars II: View Post
I should note that I am biased toward Bernie as I am a Vermonter.
Haha, that's fine - as is your point about the dynastic nature of American politics. Maybe it's just me from abroad, but I don't think it should matter her relationship to her husband, or the dynastic nature of American politics. I just think she's the best candidate that has the right energy and the right ideas for the future.

Sanders, in my view, is the very definition of unelectable at the general election. And I don't mean this as a criticism of him, nor his supporters, but I've never believed that being an ideologue is the way to lead - it's much more important to be a pragmatist. The art of the possible reigns supreme, and that is my opinion. To that end, as much as a social liberal I am, and as much as I may love the Warrens and Sanders of the world in pulling the politic to the left, I think that they have no business in being the executive, because that could be very dangerous to the centre-left movement on the whole.

Originally Posted by Mars II: View Post
....you are well versed on our political theater.
This is nothing. If you follow Australian politics, that is what is known as theatre. We've had 5 Prime Ministers in 5 years, it's amazing.

Twice in those five years, Australia has gone to bed with one Prime Minister, woken up, turned on the news, and we've had a new leader, totally unexpectedly. It's hilarious and great political drama. :P

Everyone is entitled to be stupid, but some abuse the privilege!
Hippopotomonstrosesquippedaliophobia - The Fear of Long Words
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(28-Sep-2015 at 20:11)

Alex you are still active on forums ha? You dedicated aussie!
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(29-Sep-2015 at 18:01)

Personally, I just glad Trump is losing steam. I never liked him as business figure- he seemed arrogant and unbound by the realities of real life. These are not ideal traits in a normal human being, but are kinda terrifying when looking at a potential president. I do have a strange urge to see what the actual result of his fire and brimstone presidency would manage to accomplish (a wall with Mexico paid by Mexico? That would be hugely interesting to see him try) but on reasoned reconsiderment, I would not like to live in that world.

So I agree that the Republicans will probably rally around a more electable candidate- I like Jeb Bush and Carly seems ok, but I don't want another Bush presidency and Fiorina seems.. off base. Rubio's connection to the Tea Party rubs me wrong as well. I like grass roots movements that speak for the silent, but I've stopped considering the Tea Party movement to be doing either of those things.
The Democrats aren't a huge amount better. Again, I like Bernie Sanders as a principled character, but he would be fairly disastrous I think as president, and I'd never underestimate Hillary Clinton. My personal pick would be Clinton, but she doesn't have the same charisma (read; She doesn't pretend have principles as convincingly as her husband did) and like the current president would likely say/do most anything to get elected.
Meh. Politicians suck.

I really hope that one day my overly sceptic mindset will be proven wrong, but Obama has (as a non-American) devastated a huge amount of my faith in the American political process. I liked him. I felt so lifted when I watched his first speech as president in 2004. In fact, I didn't just like him, I believed him. I hate feeling lied to.

Pointless rants aside- I suspect it'll be Bush vs Clinton, and I think Hillary will win it. And I think that's a good thing because both of them are fairly moderate, pragmatic people who have strong accomplishments to point to. I really don't want to be disappointed again though, so I'm not going to invest much in any candidate.


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You last visited: 28-May-2013 00:18


Noble Lady Sarak ~~ King Was Throne Away
The most extragant idea that a politican can have is to believe that it is enough for a people to march into a foreign country, for that country to adopt its laws and constitution. No-one likes armed missionaries; and nature and prudence both teach us to repel armed missionaries as enemies.
~ Maximilien Robespierre; January 1792
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Old lmc
Posts: 1207/1208
(02-Oct-2015 at 21:03)

Well, I had little hope in Obama. I really expected very little. He still managed to fall a long way short of my expectations.

I can't see a single candidate that would interest me in the race this time, not one.

Hillary is so beholden to all the usual lobby groups I can't see her as a ray of hope. Her abrasiveness and sheer stupidity as secretary of state would not be encouraging. 'Don't do stupid shit' may not be a foreign policy, but it would be a start.

I think the system is broken. It is so dependent on private money that you can't hope to run effectively without selling your soul. The result is not something you can call 'democracy'.

Without serious reform the system will continue to produce the same bought and paid for 'leaders' who fail to represent the interests of the electorate.

Good to see some old heads in here though, maybe there's hope after all.

Those are my principles. If you don't like them, I have others.

Groucho Marx
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