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Posts: 547/2162
(10-Feb-2004 at 04:47)


21 reasons why President George W. Bush will Win in 2004

Twenty-one Reasons Why Bush Will Win by Scott Elliott, aka The Blogging Caesar
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1. No more drunk driving lightning bolts

Just four days before the election, muckrakers uncovered a dirty little secret on their GOP rival. Twenty-four years earlier, George W. Bush was arrested for drunk driving. To make matters worse, he answered no when a reporter asked if he'd ever been arrested. It was the kind of bombshell that would have ruined his shot at the White House, except for the lead in the polls he had at the time. The effect of the report was evident later in exit polls. They indicated that a majority of people who made up their minds within three days of the election voted for Al Gore. Normally, undecideds break overwhelmingly to the candidate from the party out of the White House. In addition, an unknown number of voters who had been attracted to Bush's image of integrity were motivated to stay home. Without this perfectly-timed political hand grenade, Bush would have won the election with room to spare, and the blatant partisanship of the Supreme Court (of Florida, that is) would have remained local news. In all likelihood, Bush won't face a similar devastating revelation this year.



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2. Bush defeated the incumbent party in a time of peace and prosperity

In 2000, Al Gore enjoyed a huge advantage going into the election season. He was the sitting vice president during a time when the country was enjoying an extended period of peace and prosperity. Even under those circumstances, the American people thought enough of George W. Bush to elect him anyway. All things being equal, Bush will benefit from being in the incumbent party this time around. (I can hear Democrats mumbling something about Gore's poor campaign strategy losing the election. Maybe that contributed, but, nevertheless, Bush did possess a certain degree of electability. Imagine John Kerry..er..or not.)



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3. Democratic get-out-the-vote

Special interests serving the Democratic party developed an intimidating get-out-the-vote machine during the 90's. That process culminated in an heroic effort in 2000. The result? Dubya took the best punch well-heeled civil rights activists and unions had to offer and still came out on top. Those Democratic special interests will be hard-pressed to match that performance and even less likely to exceed it.



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4. National Security and the War on Terror

The United States of America was forever changed on that day in September when all of us were so violently ripped from of our mirage of security. Never again will peace be thought of as a given in American life. We are a nation at war. It is a war that will continue for a long time against a ruthless, unprincipled adversary bent on the merciless taking of civiflian life. They have stated their desire to kill us, each and every one, simply because we are Americans. In such times, we are instinctively drawn to leaders who show the determination to proactively confront and conquer the threats we face. Most of us understand that a co-existent relationship with these enemies cannot be negotiated; they must be subdued through absolute victory in the theater of war. Bush understands this, and Americans know it. I hesitate to bring politics into the War on Terror, but the facts are obvious. Our President and his party in general have shown themselves much more willing to implement the iron-fisted policies necessary to vanquish this insidious foe. Speaking loudly, while leaving the big stick in the closet, is not the trademark of this administration when it comes to terrorism. There can be no denying that George W. Bush is serious about actively protecting our people and our nation. The vast majority of voters, even those who may disagree with the path down which that action is taking us, take comfort, consiously or not, in the protection our military provides under the firm hand of our Commander-in-Chief. This sense of protection through vigilance will be a huge factor this November in polling booths across the country.



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5. The perfect timing of the economic cycle

The recession of 2000 started very early in Bush's presidency. So early, in fact, that it is absurd to suggest Bush's policies had anything to do with it. The downturn was compounded by the disastrous economic effects of September 11. Bush understood that America needed to pour on the fuel to keep our economic engine from stalling. His tax cuts and immediate tax rebates provided a boost that helped avert a deeper, longer recession. The economy has since turned the corner and is picking up steam. If the current trends continue, and they should, by November the economic outlook held by the electorate should be much improved. And Bush will benefit considerably at the ballot box.



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6. The perfect timing of the national conventions

This is an excellent point brought up by PoliPundit last November. Here's the meat of those thoughts (I paraphrase just a little): "The Democrats made a major blunder in the 2004 presidential race by choosing to hold their national convention on July 26 in Boston. The GOP will be holding its convention in the first week of September. I could go on endlessly about why this helps the GOP, but here are four concise reasons:
1. Bush will be able to continue spending his Primary money until September and use his general election money from September to November. The Democratic candidate, however, will be out of money by July, because of a tough Primary, and then have to make his general election funds last from July to November. This exaggerates Bush's already crushing money advantage.
2. 9/11 will be a few days after the GOP convention.
3. By holding the Democratic convention on July 26, the Democrats risk losing the post-convention bounce in the polls by election day.
4. The summer Olympics are between the two conventions and will suck the air out of the DNC message."

The two months between September's Republican National Convention and Election Day will be a great time to be Republican. I can't wait!



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7. The collective weakness of the Democratic hopefuls.

The weakness of this crop of Democratic contenders has been well documented. Suffice it to say that whoever emerges with the opporunity to face Bush will be no Al Gore, as if that were a boast.



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8. Same Sex marriage

With the rulings handed down by the Supreme Court of Massachusetts and a law in Ohio banning gay marriage, we are on a collision course with this issue that will force it into the political spotlight this year. The country is largely opposed to gay marriage, generally ambivalent toward civil unions, and mostly against a Constitutional amendment defining marriage as a joining of one man with one woman. That is the national consensus. However, if we look deeper into the intensity of each group on these issues, we see a much different picture. A few supporters of gay marriage are adamant in their views. They will mostly vote against Bush regardless of his stance, notwithstanding log cabin Republicans. However, most people who support gay marriages and civil unions, and thus oppose an amendment, do not hold that position with a great degree of fervor. By and large, they will not be motivated to take their votes away from Bush or to make sure they get out and vote against him when they would otherwise stay home. It's simply not that big an issue with them. It is an entirely different thing for a large portion of those who support the amendment. Their opposition to changing the traditional definition of marriage runs deep and strong. It is a big deal to them. Bush's stand on this issue will directly create votes for him among those whose intense feelings on this issue will overwhelm their general indifference to the political process.



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9. Republican get-out-the-vote

Possibly the most significant development in the American election process since 2000 is the unbelievable strides the GOP has made in terms of volunteerism and organization. Once a domain dominated by Democratic special interests, get-out-the-vote is now practically a wash, and GOP operatives are frenetically working to increase the breadth and depth of grass-roots support structures all over the country. This is an amazing turnaround from 2000. It, alone, will turn many a close state into a comfortable Bush victory, while moving some comfortable Gore states within striking distance for the President.



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10. Florida is much more Republican now

A startling event took place in 2002. It was startling both in its circumstances and in the lack of focus it received. That event was the Florida gubernatorial election. What happened there, when taken in the context of the voting debacle two years earlier, was truly phenomenal. I'll recap it for you:

In 2002, Terry McAuliffe pledged that Jeb Bush, the president's own brother, would be defeated in his re-election bid. In fact, the DNC made the Florida governor's race their number one priority of the 2002 election cycle. Moreover, only two years removed from the spectacle of 2000, emotions and energy should have been be running extremely high among Democrats. Did we see massive Democratic turnout? Did Terry's threats come true, for once? Nope! What transpired was not a humiliating GOP defeat, but a Bush-brother victory by a count that exceeded Jeb's first election margin. He won by an amazing 13 points! It was a complete and utter repudiation of the revenge factor and clearly showed the strength of the GOP in that state. Without Florida as an obvious pickup target, the Democrats' options to gain ground shrink considerably.



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11. Redistricting

President Bush has gained a small yet concrete advantage heading into the elections this year. Red states in 2000 netted Bush 271 electoral votes. This year those same states would give him 278. In other words, he could lose a state like New Hampshire, Nevada or West Virginia and win anyway. Even losing a larger state such as Louisiana or Colorado would produce a 269-269 tie.



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12. The Base is solid

Despite his forays into fiscal liberalism - Medicare, immigration, education - the President maintains phenomenal support among Republicans. A poll in late January by the American Research Group found only 10% of GOPers disapprove of the job he is doing. Eighty-six percent approve. In addition, the vocal displeasure at his aforementioned transgressions has apparently not fallen on deaf ears. Recently he has offered peace offerings to the GOP faithful, such as a spending freeze on non-defense spending. Finally, his rock-solid conservative stands on abortion, judicial appointments, taxes, gay marriage, and National Security are sure to bring out a sizeable elephant stampede in November.



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13. Proven leadership

Can we trust a privileged businessman who has served but 6 years in elected office to handle the affairs of the most powerful nation on earth? In 2000, voters put their faith in an untested George W Bush. Four years later, his courageous, principled, and steadfast leadership have led this country through some of its most trying times. Even those who dislike and disagree with President Bush would be hard-pressed to deny the resolve of his leadership. He provided and continues to provide a steady hand when we need it most. Voters will feel eminently more confident to put their trust in him again this year.



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14. New Hampshire is more Republican

Florida and New Hampshire were the two states that Ralph Nader's candidacy lost for Al Gore. I've already addressed the current situation in Florida. New Hampshires is not much different. Voters there have now elected two Republican senators, a Republican governor, and two Republican representatives. The GOP has a 3 to 1 advantage in the state senate and better than a 2 to 1 advantage in the state house. A Democratic victory here will be quite a feat, indeed.



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15. Minnesota and Iowa are more Republican

Pew research conducted a nationwide poll last summer to measure changes in party affiliation since the tragedy of September 11. Minnesota and Iowa have been trending Republican of late, and these shifts were quantified in that poll. They present yet another headache for McAuliffe's bunch. Now they have to row against the current in states that
Al Gore won.



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16. Governor Schwarzenegger

California's fiscal health is the inevitable result of a steady diet of liberal policies. Last year, voters in this very blue state decided to switch chefs between meals. They settled on a Republican. In fact, over 60% of them voted for a GOP candidate. Does this mean 60% will vote for Bush? Not a chance. However, with this clear rejection of liberal economics and with the structural advantage that comes with control of the Governor's mansion, Republicans have a shot at competing for the biggest electoral prize in the nation. Regardless of the eventual winner, a competitive GOP in California would require Democrats to funnel precious resources to protect their most valuable bastion.



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17. Ohio's social conservatism

Since Florida and New Hampshire are no longer the targets they once were for the DNC, Ohio becomes the challenge of choice. On the surface, Bush's narrow victory there in 2000 would give Democrats hope of taking it from the GOP in 2004. However, the political winds are blowing in the GOP's favor this year. Ohio's recent passage of a ban on gay marriage highlights their socially conservative lean. The impending battle in the gay marriage debate will solidify and motivate social conservatives in this crucial state, resulting in a more difficult obstacle for the Democrats to overcome.



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18. The Deaniacs' pending revolt

Former Vermont governor Howard Dean has been a veritable political highlight reel. Never before in my memory has a candidate followed a path similar to the one of this eccentric politician. In the race for the Democratic nomination, it has been thoroughly entertaining to see this man so flamboyantly hurtle himself to the front of the pack only to relegate himself to also-ran status through clumsy mis-steps and childish outbursts, all in a period of a few months. But, even though he's finished as a viable choice, his candidacy will have far-reaching effects on the election in November. What Dean did was to identify and add fuel to a smoldering fire within a segment of the Democratic party. These liberal Bush-haters haven't broken their engagement with him. They understand that he "feels their anger" - the same anger that will now compel them vote for a third party candidate rather than betray their man by voting for the victorious Democratic foe. This group won't be huge, but it will be enough to give Bush another advantage.



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19. Democratic experts still think Dubya's dumb

I had to add this one. Bush has made a career out of having his opponents "misunderestimate" him. They show no signs of realizing that they really aren't dealing with a moron. How many more times will the Democrats ponder, "How did he do that?"



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20. Giuliani's campaigning

As I've mentioned above, national security will be paramount in voters' minds this election season. After Bush, no one personifies the triumph of American resolve in the aftermath of September 11 more than Rudy Giuliani. In the time since, he has shown himself to be a willing advocate for Bush and other Republicans on the campaign trail. His active presence can only help Bush's standing in November.



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21. Democratic filibusters of Bush's judicial nominees

An issue that, if used wisely, can be very effective in wooing conservatives and moderates alike, is the heavy-handed, partisan tactics of Democratic senators. Never before have a president's judicial nominees been subjected to filibusters with the reckless abandon employed by this group of liberal lawmakers. Democrats have charted virgin territory in their quest to stall Bush's vision for a balanced, non-activist federal judiciary. The GOP has an opportunity to wield this obstructionist track record to attract more moderate voters and win a larger portion of the hispanic vote - read this.



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I'm sure there are more reasons for optimism. I'm also sure my counterparts on the left could come up with their own list of reasons for them to be hopeful. But the point has been made: President Bush is going to be one tough hombre to dislodge from that thar White House. When you Bushies out there are discouraged by the spin and disappointed by the polls, just read this list again and stop your fretting.
But don't stop donating and volunteering. That will play a most critical part in making this view become a reality. He is certainly not assured of re-election, but, with our continued support and hard work, all signs point to a second term for George W. Bush, the 43rd President of the United States.

Work like you will live forever and live like you will die tommorrow!
#1  
View Public Profile Find more posts by PatrioticSpirit Add PatrioticSpirit to your Buddy List Reply with Quote
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(10-Feb-2004 at 05:06)
1. No WMDs is a much bigger curveball to dodge, even if it comes out 10 months early. A leak from the independent intelligence probe could be even more disastrous.

2. Defeat through very shady and underhanded tactics.

3. Underestimating rabid hatred democrats have of Bush.

4. Kerry (the likely democratic nominee) has an impeccable war record, something most people attribute to national defense ability. An intelligent VP choice and he'll be golden.

5. The public is growing tired of boastful predictions not being delivered upon--if these 2.4 million jobs aren't created, as they probably won't be, economic cycle wont' be looking so hot.

6. Largely irrelevant, only really matters for hardcore republicans who would've voted for Bush anyway.

7. Kerry's demonstrative victories speak to this.

8. Liberals are just as fanatic as conservatives are on this issue, on opposite sides. Largely irrelevant.

9. Economic, military, and intelligence blunders are causing even many republicans to doubt Bush's competence--even on capitol hill. Many Republican legislators doubt Bush's ability to control spending, and they're worried about how it'll look on them if Bush loses. Hedging of bets anyone?

10. Florida was a lesson to floridian democrats. You can bet it won't happen again.

11. This is shameful, but true.

12. Depending on hardline conservatives to win a national election is going to be very tough. Most people are towards the center.

13. Proven Leadership? This is laughable. I'm not even going to comment.

14. Same holds true for New Hampshire as it does for Florida. One vote doesn't make a difference? Not anymore.

15. Last summer was 8 months ago. Bush's poll numbers were in the 70s then, he's now in the 40s. Enough said.

16. California will vote Democrat. I'll bet whatever you want to bet on it. Gross overestimation of the importance of the gubernatorial election.

17. Claiming an easy ohio based off of one issue is...overly optimistic at best.

18. You're counting on Deaniacs..hardcore bush haters, to take votes away from the Democrats? They're not idiots, they'll vote democratic no matter who the nominee is.

19. I look forward to the debates. There are too many hot issues for the President, and he won't be able to ignore the questions like he does with reporters without showing his true colors (read: idiocy).

20. Eh, not very relevant. One man campaigning doesn't make much difference. New York will still vote democratic, same as always.

21. Another stupid statement. The vast majority of nominated judicial possibilities were passed by the senate. Only grossly right wing nominations were filibustered. I hope they try to make an issue out of this, I really do.

These reasons are pretty sad. The reasons he'll lose have been talked up many times in other posts, so I won't waste my time with it. We'll see.
#2  
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(10-Feb-2004 at 06:30)


well I'm rooting for him, he's allright in my book, and I get to vote in this election so he gets mine

Coming up to me wearing a good charlotte shirt and telling me you're punk does not make you punk. Wearing the shirt mades you trendy and telling me you're punk makes you a posuer.
#3  
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(Former Global Moderator)
Research Group
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(10-Feb-2004 at 06:35)


Quote:
4. Kerry (the likely democratic nominee) has an impeccable war record, something most people attribute to national defense ability. An intelligent VP choice and he'll be golden.
Dug up something interesting about this today:

The Kiowa swooped and banked hard in front of the car, firing three more shots through the front hood, the universal sign for “stop.”
There are two important rules for sucess in life.
1. Never tell anyone everything you know.
#4  
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Donated $4.00
(10-Feb-2004 at 07:37)


You know, presidents elected on '00 years are supposed to die in office. So, if Bush doesn't kick the bucket before November, he'll have to be re-elected, now, won't he?
#5  
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(10-Feb-2004 at 08:32)
Quote:
(Originally posted by tlhInganHom)

You know, presidents elected on '00 years are supposed to die in office. So, if Bush doesn't kick the bucket before November, he'll have to be re-elected, now, won't he?
really? i didnt know that. did jefferson die in office? he got reelected. mckinley died... wow youre right
#6  
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(10-Feb-2004 at 08:41)
Quote:
(Originally posted by Hawkeyekid)
Dug up something interesting about this today:
TIME magazine just had a long story on John Kerry. It brings up some more objective information about his war record. He has spent a lot of time defending Vietnam veterans, investigating the possibilitiy of POW:s in Vietnam etc, and he's voted for evey war he's gotten a chance to, except the 1991 Gulf war, and that just becasue he didn't like the details not because he didn't want the war. He supported Grenada, Panama, Afghanistan and the second Iraq war.
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(10-Feb-2004 at 09:33)
All I want is for this election to be a fair one. I hope that if Jeb Bush tries to cut 56,000 democratic votes off the ballots this year that some sort of court will step up and stop him. I don't mind if Dubya is re-elected as long as thats what the majority wants. But I dont think thats the case here. I don't even care who else is in office as long as it isn't him to tell you the truth.
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(10-Feb-2004 at 12:21)


Hawkeyekid, i don't know how much of your link is trust-worthy, but:
the picture you see first of Kerry in front of North Vietnamese flag is faked, and they have hidden their acknowledging statement behind a link. that's pretty cheap.

also, the way they are repeating again and again how his wounds were "minor" and "slight" is just a lame attempt to make Kerry look bad. even if he only slipped and fell in Vietnam, it's still more than sitting out you time in the Texas National Air Guard. you as a military person should be the first to agree with that.
#9  
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(Posted as Domingo)
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(10-Feb-2004 at 12:44)


Your list, PatrioticSpirit, was very cute and fun to read. I also loved your flowery language, although the content wasn´t worth much, but as long as you believe what you say it´s fine with me.

God is dead and no one cares - NIN
There will never be justice on stolen land
#10  
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(Posted as BrainSeeker CIV)
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(10-Feb-2004 at 12:47)


I may be aussie, but i think George rocks.

Hes like a mongrel dog that wont go away.

A brain a day keeps the thought process away...
#11  
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(10-Feb-2004 at 13:20)
Quote:
(Originally posted by Hawkeyekid)

Dug up something interesting about this today:
now that is propaganda

BTW nice list spirit, i loved your patriotic view on everything. But what could sink bush is how iraq goes, if the killing dont stop soon... well when you go to vote the war will have been over by some time.

BTW when people will see that bushs tactic for clearing the world of terrorism is like hitting a nest of wasps just to kill one wich annoys you it will go bad for him in election time. But i suppose there are too many of your kind who think that if you bomb them they will go away to put him out of office just because of that.
#12  
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(10-Feb-2004 at 13:37)


All that and still losing in the polls.


But im confident that he will win. Gotta love americans for that. Building a fallout shelter as we speak.

After I'm dead I'd rather have people ask why I have no monument than why I have one

The only reason we die, is because we accept it as an inevitability
#13  
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(10-Feb-2004 at 13:49)
Heh, that link is horrible bud. Outrageously, worrisomely horrible.
#14  
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(10-Feb-2004 at 14:19)
Very informative and interesting Patriotic. You made alot of good points and I learned something.
#15  
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(10-Feb-2004 at 14:20)
Quote:
(Originally posted by Phased)

All that and still losing in the polls.


But im confident that he will win. Gotta love americans for that. Building a fallout shelter as we speak.
heh care to share those drawing plans?

I think he will win, but i kinda hope he wont. But then again if he do win and keep this work up perhaps USA will learn why you cant be the school yard bully in a world. In 4 years people just hate USA (its goverment mostly), in 4 more years who knows what could happen
#16  
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(10-Feb-2004 at 15:24)
the number 1 reason of all: there is no 2nd monica lewinsky.....so bush are safe from any sex scandal that plagued clinton and tarnished some images of gores....

forget about it...it is really dumb whether people will ever read it...
#17  
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(10-Feb-2004 at 15:34)


Quote:
(Originally posted by merow)
16. California will vote Democrat. I'll bet whatever you want to bet on it. Gross overestimation of the importance of the gubernatorial election.
20. Eh, not very relevant. One man campaigning doesn't make much difference. New York will still vote democratic, same as always.
I wouldn't be too confident, were I you. Does the name Mondale ring a bell? Dukakis perhaps? The current climate insulates Kerry from criticizm while focuses negativity on President Bush. This too shall pass.

On September 12th of this year the only question that will matter will be 'do you feel safer today than you felt 3 years ago?'. Unless a major terrorist attack occurs between now and then, the answer for most Americans will be yes, regardless of how people felt about Iraq.

Last edited by Michael1, 10-Feb-2004 at 15:36.
#18  
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(10-Feb-2004 at 15:53)
Quote:
(Originally posted by Subterranean)
also, the way they are repeating again and again how his wounds were "minor" and "slight" is just a lame attempt to make Kerry look bad. even if he only slipped and fell in Vietnam, it's still more than sitting out you time in the Texas National Air Guard. you as a military person should be the first to agree with that.
Yep, it will be interesting to see what happens if war records come into the picture. Unlike Gore, Kerry can go on the offensive on the way Bush sneaked out of the Vietnam war. Then there is, of course, the insider trading, drunk driving, how he used government money to help his baseball team etc. Bush is not invulnerable in a dirty campaign.
#19  
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Donated $11.20
(10-Feb-2004 at 17:03)


Quote:
(Originally posted by Bernel)
Yep, it will be interesting to see what happens if war records come into the picture. Unlike Gore, Kerry can go on the offensive on the way Bush sneaked out of the Vietnam war. Then there is, of course, the insider trading, drunk driving, how he used government money to help his baseball team etc. Bush is not invulnerable in a dirty campaign.
Kerry can go on the offensive regarding war records, but I don't think he will. For him to do so aggressively will highlight his post Vietnam war criticism and his poor support for all things defense and intelligence related. Futhermore, he risks coming off as a hypocrite UNLESS he wants to pull an Al Gore and not let either Gore or Clinton campaign for him. You can't very well be a critic of Bush's war service with Bill Clinton standing next to you... I happen to think Kerry will be happy to back away from discussing military service. On balance, he's got more to lose than does Bush re: matters of national defense. Kerry's best chance to be elected is a horrible economy. That's it.

As for dirt digging, there will only be so much tolerance for bringing up the past re: Bush, as this was done once and in light of his election, repudiated.
#20  
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